Instructor Bio:
Dennis Foley is a senior consultant with Launsby Consulting.
He has a Masters in Chemical Engineering from Northeastern
University and a Bachelors Degree in Chemical Engineering
from Worcester Polytechnic Institute.He has been involved
in applied statistics since 1989 starting as a Quality
Engineer, Advanced Quality Manager and eventually a Quality
Director for PolyStor battery and Lucent Technology. His
first exposure to Crystal Ball (CB) was as a tolerance
stack-up software 10 years ago. CB is an easy to use Excel
macro. The Excel interface makes Crystal Ball special
because of the ubiquitousness of Excel.
The idea to hold a financial planning seminar with
Monte Carlo/Crystal Ball came out of a Minitab class
with a Defense Contractor. There was time left at the
end of the class and some students noticed the Crystal
Ball icon on the computer. They wondered if we could
discuss a few CB examples. Dennis put together a 401K
example with stocks, bonds and cash that had the students
seriously engaged. Several came up after class and noted
that it was an excellent way to end the day. Driving
home, hecame up with the idea to make the topic a stand
alone seminar.
Topics to Be Covered:
How much has to be annually saved and at what portfolio
mix to have a defined certainty (%) of achieving a savings
goal? Most Financial Planners used fixed, “point”
estimates that do not discuss certainty.
In retirement, how much can be withdrawn, adjusted
for inflation at what fixed %, and at what portfolio
mix to ensure that the investor never runs out of money
(at a defined % certainty)>
What portfolio mix gives the investor the lowest standard
deviation (Modern Portfolio Theory)? The mix may surprise
folks because of the non linear nature of standard deviation.
Why are un-correlated asset classes so important?
What can Monte Carlo and Crystal Ball do for me and
for my investments?
Who Should Attend?:
Anyone that wants to put more detail (%certainty) into
their long term financial planning, investing, or retirement
withdrawal.
Anyone tired of paying 1-3% per year to a financial
advisor.
Anyone tired of actively managed mutual funds that
never seem to beat the indexes over 5-10 year time spans.
Attendees should have a working knowledge of Excel
and a concept of standard deviation (variation, dispersion).
Benefits:
Understand investment risk with % certainty
Know how much per year must be invested to achieve
long term goal
Optimize portfolio mix to lower standard deviation
If retired, know how much to withdraw and at what portfolio
mix to ensure you will virtually never run out of money
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